My Experiences With Market Tops

My Experiences With Market Tops

I started working in the investment business in 1976 and the stock market had been in decline for the two previous years. The market continued sideways to down for the next 6 years, culminating in the 1982 bear market bottom. Not the best time to be in the market, I...
The Anatomy of a Bubble Series – Part 2

The Anatomy of a Bubble Series – Part 2

Bubbles occur at the end of long bull markets. When markets go up long enough the wall of worry starts to dissipate. Traders assume the markets are bulletproof, where every correction is a buying opportunity. Corrections become more shallow as more and more people buy...
The Anatomy of a Bubble Series – Part 1

The Anatomy of a Bubble Series – Part 1

The first mistake that investors make when a bubble is in progress: They assume that this time is different and that it is the fundamentals that are driving the markets. You need to know that bubbles are driven by human emotions and not by economic fundamentals. In...
Stock Market Update

Stock Market Update

I’ve been absent for a couple of months but little has changed to alter my opinion of the stock market. We appear to be entering the bubble phase in the market with the S&P 500 solidly breaking through the 2600 level. The fundamental story appears to be the...
Why Investment Bubbles Form

Why Investment Bubbles Form

A lot of people are talking about a top or a crash on the horizon. Most bull markets end in a Euphoria phase. This phase is not really impacted by fundamentals or political events. Bubbles are about emotions. Granted the central banks are a contributing factor. Their...
Dollar Strengthens – Peso Weakens

Dollar Strengthens – Peso Weakens

This chart, courtesy of Bloomberg, shows the market’s reaction to the Fed’s decision to reverse its quantitative easing policy. The Federal Reserve took the first tentative steps Wednesday to unwind its history-making economic stimulus. As markets...
Updates – Peso and Stock Market

Updates – Peso and Stock Market

The U.S. dollar bounced off its two-year low on Monday. It’s too early to determine if this rally has some staying power. The dollar’s move appears to have weakened the Mexican Peso. The peso is currently stuck in a trading range between 17.5 and 18. Right...
Changing Expectations

Changing Expectations

Last week I mentioned the possibility of an intermediate cycle low for the stock markets. It appears as though that has been put off.  An intermediate cycle low on average lasts roughly 18-25 weeks. However, during periods of quantitative easing it’s not unusual to...
What Now for the Markets?

What Now for the Markets?

The news appears to be having an affect on the stock market. We’ve weathered some fairly serious political and geo-political events over the last couple of weeks. The markets, however, have been fairly resilient. Just last week we were very close to hitting all...

Pin It on Pinterest

Share This